Funny, I thought the same thing about Bloomberg and the CRA.Jedi Master Spock wrote:There's little conflict in the opinions expressed in that particular editorial and Bloomberg's.
But Fannie and Freddie were backing the loans, wrapping them up like exploding Christmas presents. In February 2008 Congress even gave Fannie and Freddie the ability to buy more with less capital by raising the limits on what Fannie and Freddie could buy!The Bloomberg editorial is quite direct:FM & FM's behavior, 2005-2007, is the most immediate cause of this mortgage crisis.In 2005, 2006 and 2007, a blizzard of terrible mortgage paper fluttered out of the Fannie and Freddie clouds, burying many of our oldest and most venerable institutions.
And if you want to refer to immediate causes, check out the precipitous drop in the velocity of money after the Fannie and Freddie takeovers by the government (which is kind of a funny way of talking about GSE's in the first place, but whatever). That happened on September 7: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fr ... ][id]=MULT.
That basically means the economy slammed on the brakes.
The next day Lehman Brothers . . . already troubled by its worse-than-anyone exposure to the subprime stuff . . . had its shares drop almost 15% just in early afternoon trading, and the day after they dropped almost 50%. So a troubled institution just basically started rapidly approaching a declaration of worthlessness. They hobbled along for about a week before imploding. The government, having already stripped them of their behind-the-scenes GSE backer, basically cut them loose, and even refused to give financial support to keep them afloat.
The same day, supposedly-venerable old Merrill Lynch, tainted with toxic subprime nasties, was sold (with government help) to Bank of America.
During "the second week of September", (e.g. 8-12 . . . before Lehman's implosion but during its descent) there was what has been described in Congressional testimony as an "electronic run on the banks".
If you pay attention to the timeline and the charts, what basically happens is that the events of early September scared the hell out of everyone. And, these events generally had as immediate cause the government intervention (Fed takeover) executed against government intervention (GSE's Fannie and Freddie), producing domino effect damage up the subprime stream along with generally alarming the hell out of everyone.
In an economy so consumer-driven when confidence levels (among hoi polloi or financiers) really shape the country's economic mood, scaring the hell out of everyone is NOT the way to do things.
It is my opinion that government involvement (1) started the mess, (2) initiated the crisis, and (3) is prolonging (or even getting rid of) the cure.
1. This isn't a free market, nor even a particularly rational one in many cases. The CRA expansion shoved institutions toward a new market that some seemed to find profitable, but which was quickly over-used. But with Fannie and Freddie supposedly backing everything and irresponsible Democrats in Congress silencing the regulators, everything looked fairly rosy for awhile.
The housing bubble looked less like a bubble and more like the way things now were. The economy re-oriented based on the conditions as they existed, like lifeforms evolving to rainy jungle. Individuals with good jobs gave them up to build "spec homes" (homes built without a buyer already in mind), knowing they could reap a profit. Individuals who needed a home were sold on more than they could truly afford, the result of "predatory lending practices" foisted upon them and the so-called predators by leftist Democrats like Mr. "Affowadawble" Homes himself Barney Frank.
But then the rain stopped, so the creatures evolved toward the jungle found themselves in tundra. The spec homes stand unfinished, the families in sub-prime mortgages are kicked out of their homes, and the economy is re-orienting toward the normal (but now damaged) conditions, excepting the little detail that the laws haven't changed that much from the time of jungle.
2. Then, as elucidated above, government initiated the crisis, its sudden activism scaring the hell out of investors and causing people to try to get cash in hand with a quickness.
Frankly, it's almost enough to make one ponder some conspiracist stupidity. But the simple fact is that those who came after Greenspan were no Greenspans, and while Bush's advisers had given him enough info to know to try to better regulate Fannie and Freddie in 2003 (thanks for shutting that down, Democrat assholes!), there just wasn't the ability or (supposedly) the time for Bush to understand what he was supporting. It was only in November that Bush was noting how he'd tossed aside his free-market principles for the "emergency".
3. Now . . . to the tune of around 1.8 trillion on paper (equal to the entire US federal budget in the 90's) or over 4 trillion when you account for timescales, interest, and so on . . . we've performed three bailout/rescue/stimulus/pork-barrel-spending/constituent-payoffs. This doesn't even count the monetary gobbledy-gook the Fed and Treasury have done, which put our obligations at (per some reports) or near double-digit trillions. That's not talking about the total national debt, that's talking about just the shit in the past 18 months.
I mean, hell, why doesn't he just send her a check so she can buy herself a car? It would do a lot more than TARP I. We already knew from the UK having already done it that once banks got a cash infusion they weren't going to start releasing the cash elsewhere, but instead hoard it. What the hell were we expecting to be different? If you have no bread to feed the birds and no hope of getting bread but someone tosses you a loaf, are you going to feed the birds? Shit, no.
But I digress, again.
Right after the election was won in November, plans were laid out for the new Christmas-present spending bill Obama signed yesterday. Among its 1100 pages of text that people had mere hours to read upon before voting on it were lists and lists of projects and BS job numbers "created/saved". Per a local example, these occurred when DNC folks or Democrats in local office asked around to other like-minded people to find out what was 'needed' in the community. As you can imagine, this unorganized and secretive sort of questioning led to stupid stuff, bright sparks catching on and giving self-serving answers, and so on . . . the "aristocracy of pull" in full flower, paid for with taxpayer dollars. Bridges to nowhere will abound.
Digressions . . . sorry.
Long story short, the best thing for government to do right now is not pass spendulus packages with money that won't even be spent most of the time until 2011. It also isn't a good idea to keep borrowing money, which is what got us here in the first place.
The ideal thing for government to do now would be to get the hell out of the way.
Even the Congressional Budget Office (hardly a conservative bastion) said so, noting that the recent porkulus package will hurt our GDP long-term.
But we've got it, and when it has little effect in several months (and we're supposed to be shocked?), even more stupid shit will be done.
And the craziest thing is that the CRA remain in place, Dodd and Frank are running the aftermath, Obama of ACORN is president, and ACORN is getting pork money.
It's a frakking circus out there, folks. The inmates are running the asylum. This makes the Clinton years look freaking reactionary.
The CRA is to blame. Not just the lending patterns, but the new securitization that the 1995 CRA created. That was the real killer. Shit, even Greenspan says so.The CRA has so little to do with this that blaming the CRA amounts to a red herring.
It is not a direct cause like a question of physics nor a chaos-theory butterfly fart way, but it is a necessary and proximate condition for the events that followed, one whose good-hearted absurdity shouldn't have passed the smell test.
But we're told by idiots and bastards that this is all due to "Wall Street greed".
Ah, but what caused the housing bubble? A bubble is a price rise. A price rise usually comes either due to a supply shortage or a demand increase.There are three main causes of this mess, IMO.
There was a housing bubble (serious housing bubble kicking off around 2001ish, depending on where you were). This involves lots of people behaving in a manner that seemed rational to them at the time, but collectively looks irrational.
Fannie + Freddie + CRA and related false-market shifts caused both at the same time. Demand went up, and prices rose 25% from 1998 to 2003. They doubled from 2000 to 2006.
Easy credit and the government pushing toward riskier borrowers means there's more demand. The sub-prime market having opened up, with Fannie and Freddie on the case, others followed the money.
Put as you could find on Wikipedia, "In 1995, the GSEs began receiving government incentive payments for purchasing mortgage backed securities which included loans to low income borrowers. Thus began the involvement of the GSE with the subprime market. Subprime mortgage originations rose by 25% per year between 1994 and 2003, resulting in a nearly ten-fold increase in the volume of subprime mortgages in just nine years. The relatively high yields on these securities, in a time of low interest rates, were very attractive to Wall Street, and while Fannie and Freddie generally bought only the least risky subprime mortgages, these purchases encouraged the entire subprime market."
Home ownership rates went up from the 15-year average of 64% in 1994 to the "all-time high" of 69.2% in 2004. That may not sound like much, but if 5% more of the total population are buying houses that's a crunch to existing supply, causing prices to rise.
A construction bubble started at this time, too, where it could. Elsewhere over-regulation on buildings and builders led to less elastic supply. But either way, with huge gains in price elsewhere prices rose in many areas.
For the lenders, the risks were theoretically managed, but only if Fannie and Freddie were in place. They represented security from the government, and then the government ate them.
Not to mention cooking their own books, getting called out by their regulator only to have that guy silenced by Barney Frank, Maxine Waters, and other Congressional Loonies, and so on. Oh yes, and having their caps lifted in early '08 so they could really get chugging on the candy.FM & FM behaved badly during this time as semi-public institutions that governmental bodies should have kept in check. FM & FM purchased subprime loans from private banks like they were candy.
Seriously, Frank and Waters were more concerned about "affordable housing" . . . ignoring the presence of the bubble they helped create, or the variable-rate ARM loans that Fannie started using in the early 2000s that would screw people right out of their house.
This is not partisan, but ideological. Furthermore, there are misidentifications of the players involved. You can't cry foul against the Bush administration or Republican Congress when Democrats within a Congressional committee block action, and when it is Congress that has the role of oversight.Failure to regulate the private banking sector; this last factor is a combination of deregulation (under Bush and the late Clinton era; the only partisan constant is that Republicans controlled the House during this period, 1995-2006) and failure to actually watch banks closely using existing regulatory agencies (Bush administration).
It's too easy to point to the president in charge and say hedidit. But what of occasions like the Fannie and Freddie regulator being shot down by Democrats in Congress. It's the Way of the Committee.
The sucky part is that you even quoted the next paragraph up from another example. Here's the whole block from Bloomberg:
Greenspan's Warning
The clear gravity of the situation pushed the legislation forward. Some might say the current mess couldn't be foreseen, yet in 2005 Alan Greenspan told Congress how urgent it was for it to act in the clearest possible terms: If Fannie and Freddie ``continue to grow, continue to have the low capital that they have, continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which they need to do for interest rate risk aversion, they potentially create ever-growing potential systemic risk down the road,'' he said. ``We are placing the total financial system of the future at a substantial risk.''
What happened next was extraordinary. For the first time in history, a serious Fannie and Freddie reform bill was passed by the Senate Banking Committee. The bill gave a regulator power to crack down, and would have required the companies to eliminate their investments in risky assets.
Different World
If that bill had become law, then the world today would be different. In 2005, 2006 and 2007, a blizzard of terrible mortgage paper fluttered out of the Fannie and Freddie clouds, burying many of our oldest and most venerable institutions. Without their checkbooks keeping the market liquid and buying up excess supply, the market would likely have not existed.
But the bill didn't become law, for a simple reason: Democrats opposed it on a party-line vote in the committee, signaling that this would be a partisan issue. Republicans, tied in knots by the tight Democratic opposition, couldn't even get the Senate to vote on the matter.
I'm sorry, but that's just absurd.Any chatter about the CRA is strictly red-herring territory. There's no demonstrable connection, and - as the article I linked to argues - you could even levy the claim that had more banking institutions been subject to the CRA, the subprime mortgage crisis would not have been as large.
Reviewing your Idaho editorial again, I find:
1. For Chrissakes, her main expert is a PhD from New South Wales less than a decade out of the proverbial gate (i.e. NSW), building up a "working paper" of a study. This isn't peer-reviewed or anything. And Alan-frakking-Greenspan poo-pooed on what she said.
And who the hell are these other people she quotes? She went out of her way to catch up with the least important, least directly-involved people.
Michael S. Barr, a leftist law professor at the University of Michigan Law School who testified before Congress . . . seems the lady forgot that he was also a Treasury Dept. official under Clinton and Center for American Progress member. I'm not getting all HUAC on him, I'm just saying that he's not exactly one who would be expected to criticize the bloody thing.
Michael Lee of Inner City Press community-organizing group (which may, like ACORN and Obama's old law firm, have sued banks for not doing enough CRA-esque loans) . . . a real financial expert!
Warren Traiger, of a law firm whose entire business is built around counseling institutions on CRA compliance. Another expert on CRA's economic effects!
It's not an ad hominem to point out that Idaho-writer's experts are unmitigated shit. And Idaho-writer is probably shit too, being noted as an NPR personality. That's National Public Radio, which is funny 'cause it breaks left almost as hard as MSNBC despite being government-run. Their big internal scandal of late was when some guy got in there hoping to rein in their leftism, and they ousted him.
2. "they blame America's economic earthquake on the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, or CRA."
Wrong. The 1995 expansion receives part of the blame for screwing up the mortgage market and securitizing the screw-ups, producing a chain reaction of suck when mixed with FNMA and FHLMC primarily, along with a couple of ancillary matters.
I was gonna go on to three and four and more taking her apart piece by piece, but it's now stupid-late and I've already let this get wayyyyy too long. Sorry about that.
Suffice it to say that her defense, if desperately spirited (or spiritedly desperate), falls flat because she asks for opinions from one low-grade economist, one professor who was part of the administration who wrote it, a community organizer, and a guy whose business is based around it.
Sorry lady, but our problem with it is the effects of the legislation, not whether businesses that Traiger represents were directly hurt by the sub-prime stuff. Part of securitization is that you pass the turds (with risk) down the line to the next guy.