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l33telboi
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Post by l33telboi » Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:28 pm

Estrecca wrote:Finally, IIRC, WEG wrote an OOB for a representative sector that puts the full size of the Imperial military (spanning thousands of such sector commands) into the millions, although it should be noted that ISDs usually are the biggest things in a sector fleet and most of those millions are Dreadnoughts, Nebulons, Carracks and such.
The WEG? That's one of the old RPGs, right?

Well, the newest one I've seen, the Clone Wars SAGA edition RPG, says the GAR has 'hundreds' of fleets, each consisting of 100-300 vessels. And those are of all ship-types.

Of course the TCW suggests that fleets are much smaller, and the general number of ships we see taking part in engagements indicates a far smaller number of ships in total.

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Post by Mr. Oragahn » Mon Feb 02, 2009 4:06 pm

Mike DiCenso wrote: I think you misunderstand. Here is Bashir's summary of what was expected to happen:


If we fight, we'll take over nine
hundred billion casualties
. If we
surrender, no one dies. Either
way we're in for five generations
of Dominion rule.


Eventually a rebellion will form,
centered on Earth. It'll start to
spread, and within another
generation, it'll succeed in
overthrowing the Dominion
. The
Alpha Quadrant will unite in a
new, stronger Federation that'll
last thousands of years.

Since we can't win, why not
surrender and save as many lives
as we can?


He's not talking about a sudden conscription for survival by a few billion. The Federation gets conquered, period. There is enough people left over that within 6 generations (approximately 150 years) they can rise up and overthrow the Dominion. That suggests considerably more than a few billion survivors. Tens of billions, at the very least.
Why so? It only depends on how the Dominion maintains power. It does not really matter if you have billions or tens of billions or more, if you're stuck on a planet.
Since Bashir expected 900 billion deaths, it means he tought if push came to shove, the Dominion would literally burn entire worlds.
Why would they let a rebellion spread when they didn't even allow the Cardassians to revolt?
It's a total conjecture and even Bashir's estimation is very disputable.

l33telboi wrote:Oragahn, "tens of thousands", not "ten thousand".
Noted.
Praeothmin wrote:
l33telboi wrote:Oragahn, "tens of thousands", not "ten thousand".
Yeah, it couldn't be ten thousand systems, because ten thousand more systems were rady to go over to the Separatists, which is what would have split the Republic in two...

So they have to have way more then 20-25 thousand systems.
Actually, error aside, it could very well, for the reason I described. There were empty seats in the Senate. In theory, you just need the missing Senators to represent enough systems to challenge the 10,000 still remaining loyal to the Republic.
Of course, my mistake corrected, it's easier to handle the situation with tens of thousands. The total of systems the Republic would possess before the conflict would be around 20~25K (I count possible declarations of neutrality of certain systems).

That said, I see no reason to ignore the statements in the ANH book either.

400 billion stars do make the SW galaxy large, and the million systems under Imperial rule would therefore mean the Republic was absurdly small beforehand, amounting to only 2% of the existing systems in the galaxy (it would even get worse with the 12 M from Dark Empire, which is a number I think is just plain wrong, for the sheer fact that the Empire, at this time, or whatever was left of it, could not compete with the holdings of the true Galactic Empire when it was at its apex and counted one million systems).

The only way you can rationalize the idea that it's a modest sized galaxy is that the galaxy is either quite dense, or that most galaxies around that one are evey bigger, possibly 150~200 thousand light years wide.
Amusingly, the Pinwheel galaxy (M101) is spotted as being 170,000 LY wide and contains more than 1 trillion stars. Maybe there's just a huge amount of Pinwheel around the SW galaxy?

Still, it sucks terribly. The gap between the prequel references and the OT references is nothing short of huge.

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Post by Jedi Master Spock » Mon Feb 02, 2009 8:53 pm

AOTC Novelization wrote:In her heart, Padmé remained steadfast that she had to work defeat the creation of this army. The Republic was built on tolerance. It was a vast network of tens of thousands of systems, and even more species, each with a distinct perspective. The only element they shared was tolerance—tolerance of one another. The creation of an army might prove unsettling, even threatening, to so many of those systems and species, beings far removed from the great city-planet of Coruscant.
OK, let me emphasize this. There are more species in the Republic than systems.

There are three possible reasons for this that I can think of, off the top of my head. It's quite likely two or even all three of them are true:

One, it's unexpectedly common in Star Wars for a system to have multiple inhabited planets (EU example: Corellia), or multiple sentient species native to a habitable planet (EU example: Mon Calamari and Quarren).

Two, the inhabited worlds of recent history within the Star Wars galaxy outnumber the worlds of the Republic by a fair margin. Thus, you may have populations whose genetic home planets are not part of the Republic.

Three, extra species are being created as a result of having long-term galactic civlization, i.e., divergent colony populations with high genetic drift becoming different species within a couple thousand years, genetic engineered species, etc.
The interior of the building was no less vast and impressive, its gigantic rotunda encircled, row upon row, by the floating platforms of the many Senators of the Republic, representing the great majority of the galaxy’s inhabitable worlds. A significant number of those platforms stood empty now, because of the separatist movement. Several thousand systems had joined in with Count Dooku over the last couple of years to secede from a Republic that had, in their eyes, grown too ponderous to be effective, a claim that even the staunchest supporters of the Republic could not completely dispute.
This is even more interesting, and also slightly problematic in relation to the 1 million system mark of the Empire. I've argued for a Core-centric viewpoint of the Republic which leads to overlooking Rim worlds on the basis of population. The core systems should contain the majority of the populatio. One almost has to add in some extra "subject" systems, or virtually uninhabited territories, or a period of rapid exploration/colonization/remapping to justify the difference given that line.

The occasional EU inflation of the Empire's numbers does become more ridiculous looking, but there's a core problem just between the two figures that already requires some invented factor to explain.
It's also worth comparing 150 worlds with the 900 billion dead estimate given in DS9. If there were just 150 worlds, then they would all be quite densely populated.
It's especially worthwhile to keep in mind the population of Federation colonies seen in the films. Many are small enough to evacuate with only a few ships; they often begin with a population of hundreds or thousands. New Providence, for example, had a population of "over 900" when the Borg wiped it out. The UFP probably claims and occupies tens of thousands of worlds by the 24th century (humans were spread to a thousand a hundred years earlier) but many have populations under a million.

I would also strongly suspect that 900 billion represents only a relatively small fraction of the total population of the Federation. 10% casualties across an entire population is a devastating blow to a human social structure regardless of what else happened in a war (see, for example, this list for percentage population losses in WWII); couple it with disarmament and military suppression, and it will be many generations before recovery.

After being invaded by the Mongols, the Russians took 140 years after the fall of Kiev to rebel against the Golden Horde, and 240 years before they stopped paying tribute. That was some lasting trauma.

The Japanese, 60 years after WWII, are only now starting to once again take "non-defensive" military action, and that only with the permission of their conquerors. Both Japan and Germany are still heavily influenced by the way WWII ended; I think the Dominion is a rather more effective conqueror than the Allies were.

The Federation could easily have a population of 10 trillion; 900 billion would still be a devastating national trauma with the near-total destruction of all resistance for a half dozen generations.

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Post by Praeothmin » Mon Feb 02, 2009 10:37 pm

Oragahn wrote:Actually, error aside, it could very well, for the reason I described.
No, it couldn't.
Look, if you have 20 to 25 thousand systems, and almost half of it were already on the Separatists' side (indicated by the amount of empty pods in the senate chambers), then that would mean that already close to 10 thousand systems are with the Separatists, leaving between 10-15 thousand systems with the Republic.
You do not have the possibility of having 10 thousand more systems join the Separatists.

That's why you'd need at least 50 thousand systems total for 10 thousand defecting being an important number.
For example: 20 thousand systems with the Separatists, 25-30 with the Republic, but 10 thousand thinking to change sides.

At the same time, too big a number has the adverse effect.
If you have a million systems, say 450 thousand with the Separatists, and 450-500 thousand with the Republic, having only 10 thousand change camps won't do much of a difference (unless they're the most populated and richest systems)...

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Post by Mr. Oragahn » Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:42 am

Praeothmin wrote:
Oragahn wrote:Actually, error aside, it could very well, for the reason I described.
No, it couldn't.
Look, if you have 20 to 25 thousand systems, and almost half of it were already on the Separatists' side (indicated by the amount of empty pods in the senate chambers), then that would mean that already close to 10 thousand systems are with the Separatists, leaving between 10-15 thousand systems with the Republic.
You do not have the possibility of having 10 thousand more systems join the Separatists.

That's why you'd need at least 50 thousand systems total for 10 thousand defecting being an important number.
For example: 20 thousand systems with the Separatists, 25-30 with the Republic, but 10 thousand thinking to change sides.

At the same time, too big a number has the adverse effect.
If you have a million systems, say 450 thousand with the Separatists, and 450-500 thousand with the Republic, having only 10 thousand change camps won't do much of a difference (unless they're the most populated and richest systems)...
Actually, you're right on the first part. I was not thinking clearly.
It is mathematically obvious that you cannot remove 10K from 10K and say that's splitting the Republic in half.

Now remember that only several thousand systems had joined the Separatists. That makes only a low figure for the initial pro-CIS systems, unless someone wants to pretend it means dozens or hundreds of thousand systems.

Funnily, from a certain point of view, 450K (Rep.) vs 430K (CIS) is nearly fifty fifty, and so by losing 10K, both sides would be at 440K, and thus what was known of the Republic would be definitely be halved.
...

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Post by Mr. Oragahn » Tue Feb 03, 2009 4:11 am

Jedi Master Spock wrote:
AOTC Novelization wrote:In her heart, Padmé remained steadfast that she had to work defeat the creation of this army. The Republic was built on tolerance. It was a vast network of tens of thousands of systems, and even more species, each with a distinct perspective. The only element they shared was tolerance—tolerance of one another. The creation of an army might prove unsettling, even threatening, to so many of those systems and species, beings far removed from the great city-planet of Coruscant.
OK, let me emphasize this. There are more species in the Republic than systems.

There are three possible reasons for this that I can think of, off the top of my head. It's quite likely two or even all three of them are true:

One, it's unexpectedly common in Star Wars for a system to have multiple inhabited planets (EU example: Corellia), or multiple sentient species native to a habitable planet (EU example: Mon Calamari and Quarren).
A bit of a complicated way to say that each system would need to have 1.x times species as there are systems. You don't necessarily need several planets for that. There are plenty of planets with different species on it. Tatooine has humans and sand people (the EU has some story about the sand people that details their origins I think). Wayland had two different species.
The more important question is where these species come from, but that's outside of the point.
Two, the inhabited worlds of recent history within the Star Wars galaxy outnumber the worlds of the Republic by a fair margin. Thus, you may have populations whose genetic home planets are not part of the Republic.
Unless Republic territory has shrunk a great deal, excluding exclusive multi-species planets within the Republic, the only sources are obviously from outside, but wouldn't this be actually worth mentioning, as part of the demonstration that the Republic doesn't cover that much galactic territory?
Multi-species systems clearly sound far far more plausible, in light of what has been published.
Three, extra species are being created as a result of having long-term galactic civlization, i.e., divergent colony populations with high genetic drift becoming different species within a couple thousand years, genetic engineered species, etc.
The EU has such an example, with the Duros and Neimoidians. This can lead to point 1.
It's also worth comparing 150 worlds with the 900 billion dead estimate given in DS9. If there were just 150 worlds, then they would all be quite densely populated.
It's especially worthwhile to keep in mind the population of Federation colonies seen in the films. Many are small enough to evacuate with only a few ships; they often begin with a population of hundreds or thousands. New Providence, for example, had a population of "over 900" when the Borg wiped it out. The UFP probably claims and occupies tens of thousands of worlds by the 24th century (humans were spread to a thousand a hundred years earlier) but many have populations under a million.

I would also strongly suspect that 900 billion represents only a relatively small fraction of the total population of the Federation. 10% casualties across an entire population is a devastating blow to a human social structure regardless of what else happened in a war (see, for example, this list for percentage population losses in WWII); couple it with disarmament and military suppression, and it will be many generations before recovery.

After being invaded by the Mongols, the Russians took 140 years after the fall of Kiev to rebel against the Golden Horde, and 240 years before they stopped paying tribute. That was some lasting trauma.

The Japanese, 60 years after WWII, are only now starting to once again take "non-defensive" military action, and that only with the permission of their conquerors. Both Japan and Germany are still heavily influenced by the way WWII ended; I think the Dominion is a rather more effective conqueror than the Allies were.

The Federation could easily have a population of 10 trillion; 900 billion would still be a devastating national trauma with the near-total destruction of all resistance for a half dozen generations.[/quote]

On the other hand, WWII's conflict focused on a fraction of the globe only, despite involving many worlds' resources, which would be quite different from the Dominion literally invading the whole UFP as if it were one unique country.
Without knowing what data Bashir based his estimation on, and not knowing when he uttered those words, I can only speculate that he was considering the full scope of the Dominion's abilities.
If it was before the wormhole cut, it makes even more sense. Counting the massive production of Jem'Hadars, we can clearly see how the Dominion would relentlessly harass the UFP.

Yes, percentages wise, several trillions would fit with our history, but I find it hard to mesh it with what we've seen of UFP worlds.

Earth, no matter the era, has never shown signs of impossible population levels. Even more, with the access to clean energy and good wealth for all, the formerly needed high population growths in poor countries have no reason to remain anymore (although synthetizers would obviously allow ten billions of people to live comfortably).
Not to say that global geopolitical uncertainty on Earth is one of the prime factor that pushes population growth. For example, China piling up numbers during the Cold War. The Federation is totally beyong the cynical exploitation of the masses and the profit of a few, misery is literally gone.
Add to this that cities like San Francisco or Paris show no real major difference to current versions, and that I'm yet to see evidence that previously untamed regions of the planet have now been invaded by hundreds of thousands of villages.
I don't see how one could honestly argue above a pop limit of 20 billions, which itself is sounding very high for such a planet, in a time of space exploration, expansion and colonization and observing how the humans tend to spread out more than many other species.
Then we look at Vulcan and Andoria, they're hardly large centers of population, yet hold a great place as founder worlds.
Tellar Prime could be one of the most populated worlds, eventually, neighbouring Earth or reaching higher, considering how we don't see many of these guys around in Trek, so it seems they'd prefer to say on their planet.
Coridan had 3 billion, and had been in contact with alien and trading with them for centuries. No reason to consider a major pop expansion.
Denobula had 12 billion people on their cramped continent. Unless their culture adopted a massive colonial lifestyle to solve the issue, they would have likely relied on population growth control to some extent, at some point.

Angosia is one of the most impressive places seen thus far, and by all accouts, what could be its most important city appears much greater than any city on Earth. But it was not an UFP world.

You also have odd examples, with Stratos, being the capital of Ardana.
Compare this to the isolated, small and unimportant exploitation station known as Cloud City, on Bespin.

Or what about Mars? Closest possible colony, and frankly miserable, even by a time the UFP has high level terraforming technologies.
When it comes to other colonies, needless to say that population levels are obvious going to be low.
MA says, about Gault
Gault is a Federation colony with a sparse population of no more than 20,000 inhabitants. It is widely regarded as a "farm-world".
Minos Korva had 2 million colonists on it.
Omicron colony had 150 people. Omicron Theta had 411 people studying sciences. Penthara IV had millions of people. Tarsus IV had 8000 people.
All other colonies which surfaces could be observed showed small settlements.

We also have Cardassia and its 800 M death toll which brought it to its knees, yet managed to be a constant threat to the UFP, before being so weakened that the Dominion possessed them.

If we pick the highest percentages, starting from 10%, for WWII casualties, we find figures around 12.7%. That's a total of 7,086 billion people.
Huh. Divided by 150, that's an average of 47.24 billion per planet. 70 B for 100 worlds, and 141 B for 50 worlds.
Completely improbable numbers.
Truth is, 900 billion sounds totally rubbish on its own, only starting to make sense if you bend clues a lot and consider that it represents more than three quarters of the whole Federation population.

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Post by Mike DiCenso » Tue Feb 03, 2009 5:29 am

Mr. Oragahn wrote:
Gault is a Federation colony with a sparse population of no more than 20,000 inhabitants. It is widely regarded as a "farm-world".
Minos Korva had 2 million colonists on it.
Omicron colony had 150 people. Omicron Theta had 411 people studying sciences. Penthara IV had millions of people. Tarsus IV had 8000 people.
All other colonies which surfaces could be observed showed small settlements.
Those colonies you've choosen to cite were all apparently new founded ones. Omicron colony was only a few years old at the time. The more established colonies, like Archer IV have populations in the hundreds of millions.
Mr. Oragahn wrote: We also have Cardassia and its 800 M death toll which brought it to its knees, yet managed to be a constant threat to the UFP, before being so weakened that the Dominion possessed them.
Actually, 800 million was a lower number:



BASHIR
Eight hundred million dead...


GARAK
And the casualty reports are
still coming in...

Aren't you going to congratulate
me, doctor? My exile is
officially over. I've returned
home. Or rather, to what's left
of it...


Also in TNG's "Yesterday's Enterprise", we learned that the alternate timeline death toll in the war between the Federation and the Klingon Empire resulted in 40 billion dead.

So I would say that your assumptions are based on a faulty interpretation of the data.
-Mike

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Post by Jedi Master Spock » Tue Feb 03, 2009 6:59 am

Mr. Oragahn wrote:On the other hand, WWII's conflict focused on a fraction of the globe only, despite involving many worlds' resources, which would be quite different from the Dominion literally invading the whole UFP as if it were one unique country.
Even within the fractions most heavily fought over, total casualties weren't far from 10%.
Huh. Divided by 150, that's an average of 47.24 billion per planet. 70 B for 100 worlds, and 141 B for 50 worlds.
Completely improbable numbers.
Truth is, 900 billion sounds totally rubbish on its own, only starting to make sense if you bend clues a lot and consider that it represents more than three quarters of the whole Federation population.
Except that we're not dealing with 50 or 100 or 150 worlds; we're dealing with something like 150 member worlds, each with its own colonies that don't qualify as independent units.

Remember that Earth alone, after about 200 years of warp drive, had spread its inhabitants to a thousand worlds, and we're concerned about what the terrain looks like after 300 years. It's possible that the Federation's members have a presence in a million systems or more - mostly with populations the E-D would have no difficulty evacuating in short order. More likely, there are only tens of thousands of worlds settled by Federation members, and 90% of those either have very low populations or have severed ties with the Federation.

However, 50 billion people per member world isn't so strange when we include colonies, even if it seems steep for an individual world. My best guess for Earth and her colonies within the Federation would be closer to ten times that figure, with roughly 200 years of unrestricted population growth following the founding of the Federation and Earth getting access to good star charts and warp drives. Earth colonies having ten times the population as the average Federation member seems right to me.

A population of ten trillion would fit with five generations of trauma and inaction after a war slaying 900 billion; so could a population of one trillion. I'm not denying you can't be right in saying 900 billion might be the majority of the population of the Federation; I'm saying there are other possibilities that still fit with that evidence. And, for that matter, our rather limited other evidence.

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Post by Praeothmin » Tue Feb 03, 2009 2:52 pm

I agree with JMS, if Earth itself can have many Human colonies throughout the Federation territory, why couldn't the other member worlds?

And 900 Billion losses wouldn't include just human losses, but total losses for the Federation as a whole, the 150 member worlds, plus any protectorates, plus the thousand (if not more) colonies.

And if 900 Billion represented the majority of the population of the Federation, then we could consider the war as lost, because there is no way the Federation would have been able to recover so quickly from such a huge loss.
Imagine, if you will, a conflict today that wiped out 3/4 of Earth's population.
The effects would be felt for many, many years...

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Post by Mr. Oragahn » Tue Feb 03, 2009 7:09 pm

Mike DiCenso wrote:
Mr. Oragahn wrote:
Gault is a Federation colony with a sparse population of no more than 20,000 inhabitants. It is widely regarded as a "farm-world".
Minos Korva had 2 million colonists on it.
Omicron colony had 150 people. Omicron Theta had 411 people studying sciences. Penthara IV had millions of people. Tarsus IV had 8000 people.
All other colonies which surfaces could be observed showed small settlements.
Those colonies you've choosen to cite were all apparently new founded ones. Omicron colony was only a few years old at the time. The more established colonies, like Archer IV have populations in the hundreds of millions.
First class-M planet, close to Sol system, that evens the odds.
Besides, is that figure from the correct timeline or the alternate reality?

Now, the good side of it is that it grew to 700 M within 68 years. But this was the closest M-class planet to Earth, so it explains why it would be prone to quicker colonization and population.
So let's imagine, you have a perfect paradise (post-pollen in this case). Using this page for year-based figures, we see that from 1900 to 2000, population multiplied by a factor of 3.73609.

So in 2368, Archer IV would have had a theoretical population of 2,615.265 millions.
That's for the closest colony, and by using Earth's population growth factor, which has no reason to be a valid one in light of the technology and resources of the Federation.
It will only decrese the further away you move from major and older colonies.
Even if we assume that half of the 1000 colonies are as populated as Archer IV would hypothetically be, you reach 1,307.632 billions as a total.
Mr. Oragahn wrote: We also have Cardassia and its 800 M death toll which brought it to its knees, yet managed to be a constant threat to the UFP, before being so weakened that the Dominion possessed them.
Actually, 800 million was a lower number:



BASHIR
Eight hundred million dead...


GARAK
And the casualty reports are
still coming in...

Aren't you going to congratulate
me, doctor? My exile is
officially over. I've returned
home. Or rather, to what's left
of it...
Yet when Garak said it was the end of good ol' Cardassia or something, when was it? In relevance to what number he had under his nose?
Do you really believe that even if data was continuing to come in, within seconds, it would have literally doubled?
Also in TNG's "Yesterday's Enterprise", we learned that the alternate timeline death toll in the war between the Federation and the Klingon Empire resulted in 40 billion dead.
Well, it's kinda useless. An interesting number, but useless, unless we know how the Federation grew and how the war exactly went. It's just too vague. Besides, it seems to include both sides.
There's no doubt there are billions of people in the Federation, it's quite proved in another episode, in DS9 Ithink, a Cardassian's words but I'll check.
So I would say that your assumptions are based on a faulty interpretation of the data.
-Mike
Faulty faulty, did you actually show why I should consider my interpretation that far from the implied truth you may think of?

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Post by l33telboi » Tue Feb 03, 2009 7:34 pm

Mr. Oragahn wrote:We also have Cardassia and its 800 M death toll which brought it to its knees, yet managed to be a constant threat to the UFP, before being so weakened that the Dominion possessed them.
Cardassia is a very minor power compared to the others. They only became a credible threat when they sided with the Dominion and provided them with a base of operation in the Alpha Quadrant.

My memory is also foggy, but isn't the 800 million dead figure from when the Dominion devastated Cardassia (the planet) when it revolted?

EDIT: I was right. The 800 million dead figure is from the bombardment of one planet.
If we pick the highest percentages, starting from 10%, for WWII casualties, we find figures around 12.7%. That's a total of 7,086 billion people.
Huh. Divided by 150, that's an average of 47.24 billion per planet. 70 B for 100 worlds, and 141 B for 50 worlds.
Completely improbable numbers.
...Which is exactly my point.

It proves that 150 worlds are not the grand total of worlds, but the more developed ones. While the 'thousand worlds' Kirk mentions are probably closer to the mark when it comes to the total figure.
Truth is, 900 billion sounds totally rubbish on its own, only starting to make sense if you bend clues a lot and consider that it represents more than three quarters of the whole Federation population.
"Bend clues?" Oh come one, just look at the facts:

Fact 1: Picard says more then 150 worlds.
Fact 2: Kirk says 1,000 worlds.
Fact 3: 900 billion dead estimate.
Fact 4: Many colonies are very small.

Conclusion: The Federation had a grand total of around 1,000 worlds during the TOS era, and about 150 major worlds during TNG.

No bending required, just a straight up line-up of the facts and a conclusion drawn from them.

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Post by Mr. Oragahn » Tue Feb 03, 2009 7:53 pm

Jedi Master Spock wrote:
Mr. Oragahn wrote:On the other hand, WWII's conflict focused on a fraction of the globe only, despite involving many worlds' resources, which would be quite different from the Dominion literally invading the whole UFP as if it were one unique country.
Even within the fractions most heavily fought over, total casualties weren't far from 10%.
But those directly hit, which would be the case of the UFP, hovered at more than 12% on the average, with more than 16% for the highest one.


Huh. Divided by 150, that's an average of 47.24 billion per planet. 70 B for 100 worlds, and 141 B for 50 worlds.
Completely improbable numbers.
Truth is, 900 billion sounds totally rubbish on its own, only starting to make sense if you bend clues a lot and consider that it represents more than three quarters of the whole Federation population.
Except that we're not dealing with 50 or 100 or 150 worlds; we're dealing with something like 150 member worlds, each with its own colonies that don't qualify as independent units.
Well see above for logical population spread.
Remember that Earth alone, after about 200 years of warp drive, had spread its inhabitants to a thousand worlds, and we're concerned about what the terrain looks like after 300 years. It's possible that the Federation's members have a presence in a million systems or more - mostly with populations the E-D would have no difficulty evacuating in short order. More likely, there are only tens of thousands of worlds settled by Federation members, and 90% of those either have very low populations or have severed ties with the Federation.
The thousand worlds thing comes from TOS.
Citation.
This is only one century since the first visit on Archer IV, the first class-M planet found.
This does not imply 1000 class-M planets either.

Ten thousand one century more? I'd say 5000 thousand tops.
From what I saw, most colonies, especially the distant ones, closer to new territories, are not looking like worlds of depearture for further colonization, and if any has to happen from these worlds, we're again going to find very low population numbers, which to borrow your words, the E-D would have no difficulty evacuating in short order.
However, 50 billion people per member world isn't so strange when we include colonies, even if it seems steep for an individual world.
The idea of including colonies to member world, as affiliations, is not strange indeed. However, it doesn't lend any legitimacy to that 50 billion figure.
My best guess for Earth and her colonies within the Federation would be closer to ten times that figure, with roughly 200 years of unrestricted population growth following the founding of the Federation and Earth getting access to good star charts and warp drives.
The only bit I'd agree on is that Terrans have by far been the highest colonization faction of the UFP.
Earth colonies having ten times the population as the average Federation member seems right to me.
Why ten times? That's based on what precisely?
A population of ten trillion would fit with five generations of trauma and inaction after a war slaying 900 billion; so could a population of one trillion. I'm not denying you can't be right in saying 900 billion might be the majority of the population of the Federation; I'm saying there are other possibilities that still fit with that evidence. And, for that matter, our rather limited other evidence.
That's possibly because you also use socio-economical rules as they work on Earth and its ravaged or dominated countries, which would still be worse than a control under Dominion rule where synthetizers and easy energy production would still exist.
Not to say of course that Dominion rule might evolve over 125 years.




Praeothmin wrote:I agree with JMS, if Earth itself can have many Human colonies throughout the Federation territory, why couldn't the other member worlds?
This is not the problem. The problem lies in who colonizes space. Andorians, Vulcans and some other members don't show to fancy large populations nor massive urbanized areas.
Rather obvious, humans are one, if not THE most spread species as far as I've seen in the Federation. All other Federation alien species are almost sidekicks.
And if 900 Billion represented the majority of the population of the Federation, then we could consider the war as lost, because there is no way the Federation would have been able to recover so quickly from such a huge loss.
Imagine, if you will, a conflict today that wiped out 3/4 of Earth's population.
The effects would be felt for many, many years...
But 900 billion casualties precisely corresponded to defeat anyway.

Now, Bashir made the most stupendeous claim that both surrender or defeat would result in a timed Dominion rule of 5 generations, and a nearly prophetized revolt within a generation after that.
Chances that Dominion rule would last the same time after two different outcomes? Pretty low I'd say.

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Post by Praeothmin » Tue Feb 03, 2009 8:40 pm

How could the Federation recover from a 900 billion loss after only 5 generations if this number represented the majority of the Federation's population?

Even modern Earth would be hit hard if even, say, 10% of it's population (roughly 700 Million people), would suddenly die or be killed (close to what happened to the Cardassians, which is no wonder they felt such disarray)...

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Post by Mr. Oragahn » Tue Feb 03, 2009 8:58 pm

l33telboi wrote:
Mr. Oragahn wrote:We also have Cardassia and its 800 M death toll which brought it to its knees, yet managed to be a constant threat to the UFP, before being so weakened that the Dominion possessed them.
Cardassia is a very minor power compared to the others. They only became a credible threat when they sided with the Dominion and provided them with a base of operation in the Alpha Quadrant.
They have been fighting the Federation for over two years.
My memory is also foggy, but isn't the 800 million dead figure from when the Dominion devastated Cardassia (the planet) when it revolted?

EDIT: I was right. The 800 million dead figure is from the bombardment of one planet.
If we pick the highest percentages, starting from 10%, for WWII casualties, we find figures around 12.7%. That's a total of 7,086 billion people.
Huh. Divided by 150, that's an average of 47.24 billion per planet. 70 B for 100 worlds, and 141 B for 50 worlds.
Completely improbable numbers.
...Which is exactly my point.

It proves that 150 worlds are not the grand total of worlds, but the more developed ones. While the 'thousand worlds' Kirk mentions are probably closer to the mark when it comes to the total figure.
I didn't include colonies, although I should have if Archer IV is an indication. But the line, I don't know if it's from the AU, we don't know if it's a good example for all colonies beyond that distance from Sol, etc.
Truth is, 900 billion sounds totally rubbish on its own, only starting to make sense if you bend clues a lot and consider that it represents more than three quarters of the whole Federation population.
"Bend clues?" Oh come one, just look at the facts:

Fact 1: Picard says more then 150 worlds.
Fact 2: Kirk says 1,000 worlds.
Fact 3: 900 billion dead estimate.
Fact 4: Many colonies are very small.

Conclusion: The Federation had a grand total of around 1,000 worlds during the TOS era, and about 150 major worlds during TNG.

No bending required, just a straight up line-up of the facts and a conclusion drawn from them.
I know these numbers, still, I don't see what you're trying to say right there.

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Post by Jedi Master Spock » Tue Feb 03, 2009 11:01 pm

Mr. Oragahn wrote:Ten thousand one century more? I'd say 5000 thousand tops.
It's generally an exponential growth curve. Finding new colony sites has been one of the driving forces behind exploration. There are easily at least ten times as many ships exploring, on average, in the TOS-TNG era as the TOS-ENT era, with average speeds ten times as fast.
From what I saw, most colonies, especially the distant ones, closer to new territories, are not looking like worlds of depearture for further colonization, and if any has to happen from these worlds, we're again going to find very low population numbers, which to borrow your words, the E-D would have no difficulty evacuating in short order.

The idea of including colonies to member world, as affiliations, is not strange indeed. However, it doesn't lend any legitimacy to that 50 billion figure.
Attaching colonies to member worlds to total an average of 50 billion per member world isn't strange at all.
The only bit I'd agree on is that Terrans have by far been the highest colonization faction of the UFP.
Why ten times? That's based on what precisely?
That's possibly because you also use socio-economical rules as they work on Earth and its ravaged or dominated countries, which would still be worse than a control under Dominion rule where synthetizers and easy energy production would still exist.
Not to say of course that Dominion rule might evolve over 125 years.
If it's worse under Dominion control, then 10% casualties causing five generations of submission is not the least bit unexpected.
This is not the problem. The problem lies in who colonizes space. Andorians, Vulcans and some other members don't show to fancy large populations nor massive urbanized areas.
The Andorian-Vulcan conflict grew out of territorial claims. Conflict, in other words, over prime colonization worlds and the military bases to protect them. Both the Andorians and the Vulcans have been spreading out for a while, and both clearly claimed control over multiple planets prior to the founding of the Federation (ref). Even Bajor, one of the poorer members of the Federation with close religious ties to the homeworld, has had eight colonies mentioned onscreen.

The Vulcans, in fact, have had a rather major misplaced colony grow into something called the Romulan Star Empire. Vulcan reproductive habits are quite well documented; after reaching maturity, they normally mate like clockwork every seven years with a partner they were engaged to at an early age. Having more than one child seems typical, and Vulcans live a couple hundred years normally... and the Vulcans have been traveling the stars for something like three thousand years.

The reasons why we don't see many Vulcans in Starfleet has been discussed at great length, of course, but it's really worth assuming that most Federation members are in on the colonization game.
Rather obvious, humans are one, if not THE most spread species as far as I've seen in the Federation. All other Federation alien species are almost sidekicks.
We mostly see the Earth-based Starfleet onscreen. The Federation council, of course, is largely nonhuman. The cantina scenes - whether in TNG, DS9, or the movies - have significant alien populations.

And I would agree with you that as of the 24th century, humanity is probably the most spread out (and quite possibly most populous) member of the Federation. However, I still think they're a minority within the Federation, and I don't think humans made up the largest portion of the Federation when it was founded - indeed, I strongly suspect they made up the smallest portion of the population of any of the members.

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