Jedi Master Spock wrote:Those were 9 in the process of being added (as someone else pointed out, we actually had 11)... out of the very little time we've had observing the regular arm of Starfleet at work expanding the Federation.
We have no idea how long these planets were actually negotiating with Federation nor how long the negotiations will still last or if they will ever get in. Besides EU expanded it's membership from 12 to 27 in 3 years. That doesn't mean it doubles it's membership every few years.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:In part, this is confirmed by the fact that the total number of known colonies, protectorates, members, etc in cumulative total somewhat exceeds 150. The number of species certain to be part of the Federation, at roughly the time indicated, is 38, with an additional 12 nearly certain (but not explicitly stated onscreen), at least one protectorate species, and the 9 from the above list. (See Memory Alpha.)
There are something like 60 identified human colonies seen onscreen, in addition to several Vulcan colonies; a diagram in ENT: "Kir'Shara" suggests at least 11 systems under Vulcan control, and at least 5 systems under control of the Andorian Empire; the Vulcans and the Andorians had some disagreements about their "border."
I saw 4 entries for Founding Members, 12 for council members, 22 known members, 1 protectorate, 2 Coalition of Planets, 18 Other colonies, 2 Vulcan colonies, 39 Other Federation colonies. That is total of 100 planets not over 150.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:Even Bajor has at least 8 colonies... leave alone major powers like the Klingons and Xindi.
I don't remember 8 colonies only one in Gamma Quadrant. Besides Mongolia has an area of 1.5 million km2 while UK ha s surface area of 0.24 million km2. Yet UK is a far greater power. Just because Klingons are more powerful does not mean they have much more colonies.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:In order for us to conclude that the Federation genuinely exercises jurisdiction on only 150 planets, we must conclude the following:
- We have seen or heard mentioned every single such planet, and some of those mentioned have since become uninhabited.
The vast majority of species which have joined the Federation have no colonies, only a homeworld.
The Klingon Empire and the Federation were not, in fact, competing over territory.
The "thousand worlds" that humans spread out on proved 95% unsuitable (see first item).
Every single one of these conclusions is, in and of themselves, unreasonable from the evidence provided.
1. The number of planets actually stated or at least implied to be in the Federation is about 100 not over 150.
2. Why is it unreasonable for many species joining the Federation not to have any colonies? It is easily possible many species upon discovery of warp drive were contacted by the Federation before developing any plans for colonisation. Secondly it is easily possible there were no overpopulation or starvation problems in many of these members thus there was no incentive to colonize.
3. Why do you take small number of colonies to mean that Klingons and Federation did not compete for territory? They could be competing for strategic locations or uninhabitable planets which still have natural resources.
4. Easily possible seeing how many people an average colony has living on them. It usually amounts to no more than a village and usually completely unprotected. Like the one attacked by crystalline entity. The entity could be destroyed easily even by Enterprise's communications arrays yet it was allowed to kill all those colonists. Why would anyone risk their lives on a far away planet if "Earth is paradise"? People colonized New World because they were running away from prosecution, hunger etc. not because they just didn't have anything better to do.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:The following, I feel, are the clear reasonable conclusions from the evidence.
- * The Federation consists of roughly 150 members as of DS9-era, each of which is an independent civilization [generally a separate species] which has achieved warp capability on its own.
* Fast-reproducing humans make up a very large fraction of Federation citizens and worlds, having populations on over one thousand planets. Many of these worlds are not single-species enclaves.
* Other members range in size from single world polities (including, presumably, several dozen of those which have simply not been named); the remainder probably have around 5-20 colonies that were settled prior to becoming Federation members.
* Some members (e.g., Vulcan, Benzar) operate their own fleets independently of the main Starfleet headquartered on Earth.
* Most, although not all, colonies have fairly small populations relative to member worlds; in total, there should be thousands of colonies.
* The total population under Federation control numbers in the trillions.
1. Picard and Sisko both simply state planets without any qualification as to what status those planets have within the Federation. Similar statement comes from Janeway in "Innocence" where she states Federation consists of 150 "worlds". No mention of members or these being species homeworlds.
2. I will address human population below.
3. An assumption on your part. We have no idea whether other species had any colonies before contacting Federation.
4. This doesn't affect the number of planets in the Federation.
5. Why? The very fact that colonies have small population indicates there are not thousands of them. Obviously there is no great emigration pressure from Earth.
6. There is no evidence for that assertion.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:Even Cardassia Prime, which was ravaged most severely, only suffered 800 million casualties - and the Federation was supposed to suffer 900 billion casualties as a whole?
The 900 billion casualties was projected by a group of mentally unstable and delusional individuals. They utterly failed in their projection since Federation actually won. Furthermore they were so sure of their abilities that they projected future over several thousand of years. For how many years did they project the war will last? Does "we" include Romulans and Klingons? In any case any claim made by them is utterly unreliable.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:For a planet to be a member, it must play host to an independent civilization.
Where is this stated? In any case Sisko, Picard and Janeway never specified that they were talking about member planets merely planets or worlds.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:If that was the case, we would stop hearing about low-numbered starbases. Instead, the span simply broadens, and the lower numbers usually seem to be more central to the Federation (occur more often).
Not necessarily. Older starbases may outlive newer ones (similar to B-52 which will outlive B-1B and B-2).
Jedi Master Spock wrote:The Xindi? Unknown, but one of the greatest powers in a two thousand light year wide region.
Power does not depend solely on how many planets you have. Besides how many planets other rival powers in that region have?
Jedi Master Spock wrote:The Klingons? We know of a handful of Klingon planets; we also know that in the Klingon civil war, three squadrons is enough to control seven sectors, and from the Dominion War, we know the [by then depleted] Klingon fleet was at least 2,000 ships strong. While we don't know how many inhabited planets and bases are within each sector controlled by the Klingon Empire, this suggests somewhere between 60 and 600 sectors controlled by the Klingon Empire.
And this, you suggest, did not increase the size of the Federation when the Klingons finally joined it?
Nothing here indicates how many planets Klingons have. Obviously when Klingons join Federation that act will result in increase of number of planets Federation has. But this still doesn't prove that over the centuries Federation increased the total number of inhabited planets.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:First, economic and population growth. The latter is so normal to populations faced with a large habitat that we would have to come up with compelling reasons as to why population isn't expanding; the former is firmly evidenced by the dramatic increase in Starfleet's size.
Regarding population growth everything happening to population in recent decades points away from your claim. It has been observed that total fertility rate is linked directly to the status of economic development and all developed countries have a fertility rate below replacement. Even Australia and Canada, which certainly don't have any problems with available space and a strong economy, have fertility rates of 1.57 and 1.76. Their population growth is the result of inertia and immigration.
Meanwhile Bangladesh with area of 144,000km2 and population of 153 million still has a fertility rate of 3.08 and population growth of 2%.
Clearly amount of available space has nothing to do with it.
Census.gov has an
article on world population clearly stating that global population growth has peaked with 87 million people added in 1989-1990 but only 74 million people added in 2002-2003. Current projections have the total fertility rate for the world dropping below replacement level by 2050. I would be very surprised if in year 2370 we have 6 billion humans let alone much more.
Here is an article that projects population up to the year 2300. High scenario has the population at about 36.4 billion, medium at 9 billion, zero growth at 8.3 billion, and low at 2.3 billion.
As for Starfleet size several thousand ships manned by several hundred crewmembers means several million people. With strong economy that is not a problem even for a few billion people.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:Second, the number of members. This is evidenced by the frequency of joining/attempted joining members (at least 11 out of fifteen sample years, counting in DS9, which is uncharacteristically concerned with a single prospective member species) as opposed to leaving members (none, period) along with the initially small number of members and the much larger number of known members later.
Tasha Jar's colony left the Federation thus indicating that not only homeworlds but individual colonies have that right even if they are falling into disarray. Most of the examples actually involve attempts to join. How long these negotiations take or whether they are even successful is not revealed. Again see EU for example of sudden enlargement that does not represent the long term state of affairs.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:Third, the number of worlds. This is implicit in the membership, but also in the typical colony size compared with overall population, the relative rarity of colony failure, the retention of disputed colonies (Cestus III), etc.
Overall population is unknown other than certain assumptions about assumptions made by the mentally unstable individuals. The fact that a typical colony is so small and usually inhabited by people who simply like to live on the "frontier" rather than people simply moving for a better life means there will be no great demographic pressure like the one seen on Earth and thus there is unlikely to be a great number of colonies.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:Fourth, the geographic span and area of direct influence. This is evidenced by Q's statements about when the Federation "should" be encountering what, the progressive statements about the charting of the galaxy, and the progression of the span of the Federation (8,000 light years across), and the quadrant discussions.
I have yet to see this influence since there is a number of species right on it's borders like Tzenkethi and Talarians which fought wars with Federation and have shown no sign of bowing to their interests. Q, as I remember, simply stated that "humans should not be in this quadrant for another hundred years" if you are referring to his statement from "Death Wish".
Being somewhere does not equal influence or actual territorial holdings.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:Fifth, the assimilation of former regional powers, who previously were significant competitors to it, e.g., the Klingons, the Xindi, etc.
And which have an unknown number of planets, population etc.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:We have no evidence of any loss... only of gains.
Tasha Jar's colony.
Jedi Master Spock wrote:"The Chase." Also, the Dominion War.
The Chase evidence is a single map with the assumption that the highlighted part was not a zoomed in area superimposed on the original map. If any shuttle could visit locations tens of thousands of ly away in a matter of months then Federation would not be completely oblivious to major Gamma and Delta Quadrant powers like Dominion, Borg, Kazons, Devore etc.
In addition there are many pieces of evidence pointing to most of economy and population being concentrated in a single world:
- *Qo'nos ecological disaster leading to Spock calling Klingons a dying people
*Depopulation of Earth being described as destruction of humanity in Nemesis
*Romulan Admiral claiming that if Romulus and Remus were to be united on equal basis "not even the Federation" will be able to stand in their way, a bit of rhetoric to be sure but even so he is unlikely to be exaggerating too much when addressing the senate
*Dominion which was confined to a single planet (Cardassia) was still expected to threaten the combined forces of Romulans, Klingons and Federation
Praeothmin wrote:Yes it does.
It tells us that at least on one dimension, the UK are at least 13000km long.
Even if it was only 4km wide, the Government would still need to be able to patrol 13000km in order to protect its borders.
So if the two most distant planets in the Federation are 8000LY apart, then we know for a fact that the Federation is 8000LY long...
UK is not 13,000km long. Atlantic is not a part of it's territory and it certainly doesn't need to patrol the entire ocean for 13,000km. It only has to patrol around Great Britain, Ireland and the Falklands.
Roondar wrote:It's conceivable Picard was referring to 'human' planets when he answered Lily in FC, or that he was referring to 'core worlds'.
Unlikely since Sisko states that Federation has over 100 planets and Janeway states that Federation has over 150 worlds. Both were talking to aliens so there would be no reason to only name human worlds, the point was to describe the Federation as a friendly family of alien worlds.