Swine Flu: Is it the next Spanish influenza pandemic?

[PunkMaister]

So in regards to the outbreak and rapid spread of Swine flu throughout the world what does anyone think of this disease? Is the dreaded next Spanish influenza pandemic in the making that everyone feared and knew one day would inevitably come?

[Mike DiCenso]

Unlikely, the pathology of the so-called Spanish Influenza, unlike other forms of the flu, killed otherwise healthy individuals by causing a unique form of immune system over-reaction called "cytokine storms". Could this new swine flu spread far? Sure. But at this time, the disease has not exibited the high mortality rate that the 1918-1920 outbreak has.
-Mike

[Praeothmin]

Plus our modern medical system is way better then what they had in the 1920s.

Plus, alcool is legal today, while it wasn't in the 1920s.
Anybody asking what that has to do with the thread has difinitly never tried to get rid of the flu through Whiskey or Rhum.
Ok, I don't know if it works either, but man you don't see the days go by and then, when you sober up, BAM, no more flu... ;)

[PunkMaister]

Unlikely, the pathology of the so-called Spanish Influenza, unlike other forms of the flu, killed otherwise healthy individuals by causing a unique form of immune system over-reaction called "cytokine storms". Could this new swine flu spread far? Sure. But at this time, the disease has not exibited the high mortality rate that the 1918-1920 outbreak has.
-Mike

Funny it has just begun and has already killed over 149 people which is far more than what Spanish influenza did when it was beginning to spread before it became a Pandemic. Alcohol was not outlawed all over the world in fact prohibition in the US only lasted for about a decade or so and all we got from that is headaches like Capone. I doubt it'll cure you, it sure did not cure people with Spanish influenza or everybody would have been saved by just getting drunk and that did not happen.

[Flectarn]

Unlikely, the pathology of the so-called Spanish Influenza, unlike other forms of the flu, killed otherwise healthy individuals by causing a unique form of immune system over-reaction called "cytokine storms". Could this new swine flu spread far? Sure. But at this time, the disease has not exibited the high mortality rate that the 1918-1920 outbreak has.
-Mike

actually I've heard that this flue is doing the same thing.

[Mike DiCenso]

The infection rates and the intensity of the cytokine storms do not appear to be anywhere near on the same level as the 1918 pandemic. At least not so far, and neither are the reported death tolls.
-Mike

[PunkMaister]

The infection rates and the intensity of the cytokine storms do not appear to be anywhere near on the same level as the 1918 pandemic. At least not so far, and neither are the reported death tolls.
-Mike

We are not even in a Pandemic situation yet but the mortality rate from just a few days of being discovered does surpass the 1918 pandemic in it's initial stages.

[Mike DiCenso]

Based on what data? The "early stages" of Spanish Flu were not well characterized, and may even have started out even earlier than previously thought (Spring of 1917 in Austria).
-Mike

[2046]

I do find it odd that we aren't calling it Mexican Flu or Mexico City Flu or even Veracruz Flu.

((((((
Edit: Now it's clear why. I found this very good NY Times article, but then also this, and in that last one is where the nomenclature politics got seriously inserted.

Apparently:

1. If you're thinking history points to the idea of calling it "Mexican flu", and
2. You are from the US with its funny-name-using media, and
3. You are not from Thailand that calls it "Mexican flu" now,

... then you're a right-wing extremist. My bad.

Mexican flu it is, SFGate-skank.
)))))))

[PunkMaister]

Based on what data? The "early stages" of Spanish Flu were not well characterized, and may even have started out even earlier than previously thought (Spring of 1917 in Austria).
-Mike

http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/hea ... enza-.html

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/s ... 41,00.html

I do find it odd that we aren't calling it Mexican Flu or Mexico City Flu or even Veracruz Flu.

((((((
Edit: Now it's clear why. I found this very good NY Times article, but then also this, and in that last one is where the nomenclature politics got seriously inserted.

Apparently:

1. If you're thinking history points to the idea of calling it "Mexican flu", and
2. You are from the US with its funny-name-using media, and
3. You are not from Thailand that calls it "Mexican flu" now,

... then you're a right-wing extremist. My bad.

Mexican flu it is, SFGate-skank.
)))))))

Well they named the 1918 avian Flu as Spanish influenza did they not?

[Praeothmin]

Alcohol was not outlawed all over the world in fact prohibition in the US only lasted for about a decade or so and all we got from that is headaches like Capone. I doubt it'll cure you, it sure did not cure people with Spanish influenza or everybody would have been saved by just getting drunk and that did not happen.

The bit about the Alcool was just a joke... :)

My main argument is that our medical technologies have improved drastically compared to the 1920s, and we have methods to contain the infection, and fight it, that we didn't have in the 1920s.
Add to tha fact that the highest number of deaths we've seen so far are in one city, Mexico, which has numerous unkempt places, public offices, smog, basically not the cleanest or most sanitized place in the world.

And since the Flu viruses we know never just appear out of thin air, they have an incubation period, meaning that the Swine Flu was in the infected for at least 1 or 2 weeks, meaning a lot of people around the world could have it, and yet we mainly see cases in Mexico and a few more in the US.

Let's wait a few weeks before panicking, shall we? ;)

[Mr. Oragahn]

Correct, verified and official death rate in Mexico has been reduced from 20 to 7.
We're far from the hundred and plus.

This flu has potential for being pandemic though, due to its original mixing of strains. It's almost too perfect to be true! :D

[Flectarn]

I do find it odd that we aren't calling it Mexican Flu or Mexico City Flu or even Veracruz Flu.

((((((
Edit: Now it's clear why. I found this very good NY Times article, but then also this, and in that last one is where the nomenclature politics got seriously inserted.

Apparently:

1. If you're thinking history points to the idea of calling it "Mexican flu", and
2. You are from the US with its funny-name-using media, and
3. You are not from Thailand that calls it "Mexican flu" now,

... then you're a right-wing extremist. My bad.

Mexican flu it is, SFGate-skank.
)))))))

personally I think Veracruz flu has a better ring to it.

[PunkMaister]

Correct, verified and official death rate in Mexico has been reduced from 20 to 7.
We're far from the hundred and plus.

This flu has potential for being pandemic though, due to its original mixing of strains. It's almost too perfect to be true! :D

Are you suggesting that this strain could be man made Mr O? That's even scarier...

[Mr. Oragahn]

Correct, verified and official death rate in Mexico has been reduced from 20 to 7.
We're far from the hundred and plus.

This flu has potential for being pandemic though, due to its original mixing of strains. It's almost too perfect to be true! :D

Are you suggesting that this strain could be man made Mr O? That's even scarier...

Well, yes, a form of it can. CDC labs have been manufacturing such a mix, in 04, precisely to be prepared if they needed to deliver vaccines at a large scale, if such a flu were to occur naturally... which is really remarkable, to have a flu managing to mix all three different viral DNAs, and get transmitted.
If that thing was to evolve naturally, it would need to "gestate" and mutate within a human host who would have been infected by, say, swine flu, which I understood is a rare thing since the virus doesn't jump that easily from pig to man; then infected by avian flu, again, not a given; then merge together, and the same host would also catch human flu (!!), survive the two former flus, survive the third flu, and survive the newly mutated super mix.
Well...

As for my concerns about the natural origin of the flu, there's a couple of things to consider.

First, the swine flu outbreak in 1976, in Fort Dix.
Information:

• Wired magazine, about the '76 outbreak.
• CDC can't explain where the flu came from and why it remained confined to the military base.
• 1976 Ft. Dix swine flu outbreak offers guidance.

Then you have the avian flu. An US society called Baxter distributed a vaccine to fight off avian flu. It was found it was contaminated with live H5N1, the human form of the avian flu.
H3N2 infects humans. Mix both strains, and you have a powerful agent.
The company Baxter didn't respond at first. Then said it was an accident.
An accident within Biosafety Level 3 security norms. Google around and you'll see that you have more chances of being shot, stabbed and put on fire the same day you'd win million of dollars on the lottery, than having such an accident occur within such a context.

• In Czech Republic, a sub-contractor lab to Avir Green Hills Biotechnology (Austria, made he tests on ferrets which revealed the presence of live H5N1 in the vaccine. It appears that some national newspapers literally asked if this was intentional in order to start a pandemic (and thus, logically, sell vaccines en masse, while at the same time using the 60% lethal virus to cleanse some countries and bring the population a notch down).
• A sentiment which was echoed in 2008, albeit not for the same vaccine, by Indonesia's Health Minister, with grave accusations. Which would be ridiculed if not present in the plans of the US and Israeli army:
• The US military is attempting to resurrect the influenza virus that killed up to 40 million people in 1918. Why the heck would someone risk doing that, pray tell??
• New weapons of ethnic cleansing (May 9, 1999). " GENETIC weapons capable of wiping out specific ethnic groups are no longer the stuff of science fiction, military and scientific advisers with the British and American governments have admitted.
  Technology is now far enough advanced to give even small nations the ability to create so called "G-Bombs", ethnically-targeted biological missiles with warheads tipped with plague or anthrax, designed to eliminate entire racial groups.
  An investigation by the British Medical Association has concluded that G-Bombs will become a weapon of war in five years, enabling governments to target victims solely on their genetic make-up."
• Israel's Ethnic Weapon?
• How a better Middle East would look. Well, let's see what their paradise looks like: " As for those who refuse to “think the unthinkable,” declaring that boundaries must not change and that’s that, it pays to remember that boundaries have never stopped changing through the centuries. Borders have never been static, and many frontiers, from Congo through Kosovo to the Caucasus, are changing even now (as ambassadors and special representatives avert their eyes to study the shine on their wingtips).
  Oh, and one other dirty little secret from 5,000 years of history: Ethnic cleansing works."
• REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES -- Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century. Uh-huh. Big plans ahead. What were they envisioning, exactly?
  "... advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."
  Oh, only that. No reason to worry then! Ha Ha.

There's the mere fact that there are massive profits to make with vaccines (try to find on internet who made loads of money with Tamiflu), and as such, you may want to watch this video, called Bayer Exposed (HIV Contaminated Vaccine), to know that trusting the FDA is simply that fucked up and evil, and they'd sell your skin for more bucks.
I remember the trials about AIDS tainted blood reserves in France. Some bastards dodged the charges, saved by their place in politics.

Then we get to our current super mix flu. The Triforce. Human. Pig. Bird. Yes, I suppose you didn't know that was the truth about it.
Anyway...
Today, on the radio, I learned that samples of the flu were sent to Pasteur labs. I didn't really remember the details, so I went looking around.

• Sanofi-Pasteur said it would take 4 months to get a vaccine to the ever mutating virus.
• A similar story, about some other labs, this time in UK: Swine Flu Virus Being Sent To London Labs.

It took me quite some time to dig the links above, but during my self appointed journalistic search (:/), I found far more elements.

With all of this in mind, let's think about this sudden appearance of the flu in Mexico, and think about the kind of people who have died of it.
Think about how it seems to have taken all health authorities by surprise, to such a point all media and big health organizations say it's "too late" in choir:

"As it raised the pandemic alert to phase 4, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday that it was now too late to try and contain the spread of swine flu and countries must focus on reducing the impact; however this does not mean that a global pandemic is inevitable."
Fox News: "The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday it was too late to contain the swine flu outbreak in the United States."

Too late?
Well, let's see how this turns out.

Here is a document you will have to save at any costs:

Press release Sanofa-Aventis

Mexico City, Mexico, March 9, 2009 - Sanofi-aventis (EURONEXT: SAN and NYSE: SNY), announced today the signing of an agreement with the Mexican authorities to build a € 100 million facility to manufacture influenza vaccine in Mexico.
The announcement was made during a ceremony attended by Felipe Calderon, President of Mexico, and Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France, who was in Mexico City for a State visit.
This facility will be built and operated by sanofi pasteur, the vaccines division of sanofi-aventis Group, which was represented at the ceremony by Chris Viehbacher, Chief Executive Officer of sanofi-aventis.

“By building this new facility, sanofi-aventis is proud to contribute to the strengthening of Mexico’s health infrastructure and is eager to support Mexico’s exemplary commitment to public health through influenza immunization and pandemic readiness”, said Chris Viehbacher. “This investment illustrates sanofi-aventis’ local approach to global health. This facility will benefit public health in Mexico and the Latin American region, in the context of influenza pandemic preparedness”.

The agreement was signed by Birmex’ (Laboratorio de Biológicos y Reactivos de México) and sanofi-aventis’ representatives in the presence of Dr. José Ángel Córdova Villalobos, Minister of Health of Mexico.

Under the terms of the agreement, sanofi pasteur will manufacture influenza vaccine in collaboration with Birmex, a Mexican federal vaccine manufacturer. Birmex will perform certain stages of manufacturing and will be responsible for distributing influenza vaccines to the public in Mexico.
Sanofi pasteur is planning to start construction of the new vaccine manufacturing facility within a few weeks. Upon completion within four years, the facility will have a yearly capacity of up to 25 million doses of seasonal influenza vaccine.

The new influenza vaccine plant will be built in Ocoyoacac, where sanofi-aventis already operates a facility. The plant will be designed to switch to pandemic vaccine manufacturing if a human influenza pandemic is declared and a pandemic influenza strain is identified by the World Health Organization (WHO).

As the world leader in research, development and manufacturing of influenza vaccines, sanofi pasteur is working to develop new and improved influenza vaccines to save lives and is actively involved in pandemic preparedness. Over the last five years, sanofi pasteur has been consistently investing in major expansions of its influenza vaccine production capacity in the United States, France, China, and now Mexico. With the production of more than 170 million doses of seasonal influenza vaccine in 2008, sanofi pasteur confirmed its global influenza vaccine market leadership.

***

Seasonal influenza overview
Influenza is a disease caused by a highly infectious virus that spreads easily from person to person, primarily when an infected individual coughs or sneezes. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the average global burden of inter-pandemic influenza may be on the order of 1 billion cases per year, leading to 300,000-500,000 deaths worldwide. In temperate climate zones, seasonal epidemics typically begin in the late Fall and peak in mid-winter, infecting about 5-15% of the population each season, while In tropical zones the virus can be isolated year-round. The disease can affect all age groups, but rates of infections are highest among young children who spread the virus and are a potential source of infection in older age cohorts, whereas rates of serious illness, complications and death are highest in persons aged 65 years and older, as well as in persons with chronic cardiac or respiratory conditions. The efficacy of vaccination in reducing the burden of the disease, as well as the economic burden of treating influenza, is well established.

Pandemic Influenza Overview
Influenza is a disease caused by a highly infectious virus that spreads easily from person to person, primarily when an infected individual coughs or sneezes. An influenza pandemic is a global epidemic of an especially virulent virus, newly infectious for humans, and for which there is no preexisting immunity. This is why pandemic strains have such potential to cause severe morbidity and mortality. In an attempt to minimize the impact of a pandemic, many countries are developing national and transnational plans against a possible influenza pandemic situation. For more information on sanofi pasteur and pandemic preparedness, please visit http://pandemic.influenza.com

About sanofi-aventis
Sanofi-aventis, a leading global pharmaceutical company, discovers, develops and distributes therapeutic solutions to improve the lives of everyone. Sanofi-aventis is listed in Paris (EURONEXT: SAN) and in New York (NYSE: SNY).
Sanofi pasteur, the vaccines division of sanofi-aventis Group, provided more than 1.6 billion doses of vaccine in 2008, making it possible to immunize more than 500 million people across the globe. A world leader in the vaccine industry, sanofi pasteur offers the broadest range of vaccines protecting against 20 infectious diseases. The company's heritage, to create vaccines that protect life, dates back more than a century. Sanofi Pasteur is the largest company entirely dedicated to vaccines. Every day, the company invests more than €1 million in research and development. For more information, please visit: or www.sanofipasteur.comwww.sanofipasteur.us

References:
1. http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/dis ... print.html

Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives, intentions and expectations with respect to future events, operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. Although sanofi-aventis’ management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of sanofi-aventis, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the public filings with the SEC and the AMF made by sanofi-aventis, including those listed under “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” in sanofi-aventis’ annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2008. Other than as required by applicable law, sanofi-aventis does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information or statements.

By this document, we can notice FOUR things.

1. We clearly see the similarity to the influenza referred to in this PR, notably described as hitting the youth, although there is no mention of swine specific flu. But the very short document does makes mention of a "virulent virus, newly infectious for humans, and for which there is no preexisting immunity."
2. The document is dated March 9, 2009. So it is just pure fluke that nearly two months prior to the rise of the new A/H1N1, which took the world off guard, these drug giants decided to expand their facilities near Mexico?
3. Their facility, which has been expanded, is located at Ocoyoacac. Here's a more exact address: "Sanofi-Aventis De Mexico, SA De CV, Acueducto Del Alto Lerma No. 2, Parque Industrial, Ocoyoacac, Estado De Mexico 52740, Mexico". Use Google Earth if you want to, it gives better details. Now take a look at the 2009 Swine Flu (H1N1) Outbreak Map.
   Go look for Mexico. Now pay attention. Less than 20 km west from Mexico, slightly South, towards Toluca, down the Mex15, you find Raccoon Cit... erm, I mean Ocoyoacac.
   Yes, in the region where it all started.
   Oh... BIG. FUCKING. SURPRISE.
4. Sanofi-Aventis is the world leader flu vaccine producer. "Sanofi pasteur, the vaccines division of sanofi-aventis Group, provided more than 1.6 billion doses of vaccine in 2008, making it possible to immunize more than 500 million people across the globe."
   Half a billion. 500,000,000.
   Some know where this number can also be found.

"Sanofi-Aventis: Because health matters"

You betcha! :)

Oh yeah. The conclusion? Well, while this started as a message to suggest, eventually, that there were reasons to consider this spread as non-accidental, the more I typed it, the more it became clear that the surprising and mysterious outbreak (hey, like in 1976!) appears to be neither.

Now, filthy Mexicanos, you die.