Frankly, I personally remained unaware of that bit form of evidence for years, not feeling particularily concerned about that bit.
Now, since playing devil's advocate can be funny for a while, but definitively tiresome, let's just look at the problems with that diagram.
The swarm of blue dots is approaching the Death Star, or seems to. Which would somewhat defeat the purpose of taking the rebels by surprise, by sandwhiching them, right?
This fleet is approaching the DS from one quarter and a half from the dish's direction, anticlockwise. Technically, we could say that they're coming from behind the Death Star.
So, how do you actually make Palpatine's order fit with that "evidence"?
The suggestion is that the imperial fleet remained hidden behind the moon, like he said, but not Endor. The moon, here, would be the Death Star (let's assume for a moment that it's nicknamed as a moon, a bit like ObiWan did in ANH). If the moon referenced in the movie was Endor, then why would the fleet be approaching the Death Star, instead of moving away and hiding on the other side of Endor?
Then, when the rebel fleet comes out of hyperspace, far from the moon, they don't spot any imperial ship at all. There's none to be seen. Their trajectory is a curve, since they come facing Endor, then turn and only face Endor's horizon, but directly face the Death Star's dish.
In all ways, if the imperial fleet tried to hide behind the Death Star, this plan would have been so risky that the ships should have had to stick very close to the battle station.
Trouble is, when Lando realizes that they're trapped, they u-turn and see the imperial fleet facing them. Since a hyperspace jump this close to Endor seems out of question, you got to wonder where the ships come.
Logically, the story would want us to think that the ships were hiding on the other side of Endor, and approached the rebel fleet from behind, to trap it between them and the Death Star.
Which is logical.
But this makes you wonder why the schematic displayed the imperial fleet approaching the Death Star when the rebel fleet was about to arrive. It makes no sense.
Not only is that schematic the fruit of a rendition that does not really bothers with correct scaling, but what it represents makes no sense at all. You can't have the imperial fleet approaching the DS, when the whole point was to actually go away and hide on the other side of Endor.
Technically, it would be much more logical for these blue dots to actually represent the rebel fleet on its way to Endor.
Say a couple of ships have been painted, transporting beacons, it's clearly nothing new here, and the whole Emperor's plan largely relied on misinformation. The idea that there could be traitors among the rebels is not out of question.
After all, they had reports of the fleet gathering near Sullust.
Of course, this would also mean that the schematic's scales are even more irrelevant, as completely off.
JMS, you're right on the point that Saxton assumed the imperial fleet was moving towards the Death Star, but if it was not, the difference shouldn't be that important anyway, and it wouldn't make much sense to display this kind of visual information if it wasn't reliable in a way or another.
Taking the absolute extreme of this reasoning, say that in a 3D space, axis X is the one pointing at the Death Star, and centered of the imperial fleet.
Y is the one that would be pointed at the screen, or opposite to the screen.
Saxton assumed that with the vector (x;y), x>0 and y roughly within what would bring the fleet into contact with the battle station. Not zero but a low value nonetheless.
We got to consider that if the tactical display is in 2D, while it could have been in 3D if it had to, it's likely because x is largely bigger than y, and that it can be simplified to a 2D schematic view, since the depth displacement (y) is negligible.
If the scales were correct, in some kind of way, then Saxton's estimation wouldn't be that wrong.
Of course, that would also require several of his other asumptions to be true as well. But it's not the case.
The main problem to me, really, is why, what people consider to be the imperial fleet, is seen approaching the Death Star by the time Han's team attacks the generator, while it's been maaaaany hours, maybe a whole day, since the Emperor ordered the damn fleet to move to the far side of Endor and stay there until further notice?
That would probably be the best way to screw Palpy's plan and piss him off you know, instead of staying put and only moving when he says so.
That's why I think it does represent, in a very artistically free way, the rebel fleet approaching Endor through hyperspace.
In the end, the manoeuver the imperial fleet pulled is still impressive. They followed an orbital course from behind Endor, to pop up on the rebel fleet's tail, and from there slowed down to meet the other ships and remain at a given distance from the Death Star, all that within a very short timeframe.