Ork WAAUUUUUGHH vs. Trek Earth redux

[Opecoiler]

All unknown... although again, Starfleet can be expected to have unusually high personnel presence for the population, which means that we probably won't have a shortage of pilots.

So you admit that this is only speculation.

Not significant.

You think that San Francisco getting blown up, Utopia Planetia and other shipyards occupied or destroyed, and bloodthirsty Orks swarming all over the world within the first days of the battle is not significant?

Of course it isn't. As is typical, we don't have enough information to be sure. The probability is very good, though. Cadet pilots train in dangerous high-precision high-g maneuvers.

Being able to fly high-G manuvers is not the same as being able to pull off a successful ground attack mission. There are after all, such issues as tactical coordination between ground and air.

Again, you admit to only having speculation on your side.

[Jedi Master Spock]

So you admit that this is only speculation.

An educated guess. Speculation, albeit not blind.

You think that San Francisco getting blown up, Utopia Planetia and other shipyards occupied or destroyed, and bloodthirsty Orks swarming all over the world within the first days of the battle is not significant?

It's not significant in terms of the pilot supply, no. In the United States of today, there are hundreds of thousands of trained pilots, i.e., a noticable fraction of a percent, and at least tens of thousands of military trained pilots. We expect to have far more trained pilots than actively flying craft.

Being able to fly high-G manuvers is not the same as being able to pull off a successful ground attack mission.

It isn't, however, completely unrelated. The basic piloting skill trained at the Academy, I believe, is established as sufficiently high; what we lack is whether or not ground attack missions are included in training packages.

As to that, we again have no information, and must guess to come to any conclusion.

There are after all, such issues as tactical coordination between ground and air.

Shuttles are rarely one person craft.

Again, you admit to only having speculation on your side.

The actual flight characteristics, firepower, and durability of shuttles and the level of Federation pilots' skills is ballparked reasonably without any need for guessing. We've seen and heard described plenty of sharp piloting not just by Sulu and Paris, but also by such as Wesley Crusher and other trainees.

The number of shuttles, number of trained pilots, and the existence of ground support doctrines within the normal training regimen, those we must speculate about.

[Opecoiler]

So you admit that this is only speculation.

An educated guess. Speculation, albeit not blind.

Ok, so how many of these Starfleet personnel are actual combatants instead of administrative pencil-pushers?

It's not significant in terms of the pilot supply, no. In the United States of today, there are hundreds of thousands of trained pilots, i.e., a noticable fraction of a percent, and at least tens of thousands of military trained pilots. We expect to have far more trained pilots than actively flying craft.

It will be significant in terms of the pilot supply for a variety of reasons.

First off, if Starfleet loses only 5% of its trained combat pilots from the initial hulk crashes and bombardments, it still has a 5% deficit against the Ork flyboyz in terms of skilled flight personnel, since they will recieve zero to neglegible losses from said hulk crashes and bombardments.

Second, the Starfleet pilots that survive will be shaken mentally (imagine how loud those must be, at the very least) and some will quite possibly be damaged physically to varying degrees as well. The flyboyz will have no such worries, since they've just emerged from the safety and relative comfort of their carrier ships.

Finally, you must consider the morale factor for both species. After the initial air combats against the Orkish fighta-bommerz and landas take place, the surviving Starfleet crews will land onto a hellish battlefield where hordes of savage, barbaric aliens and their war machines rampage across the world. The Orks will land in the middle of a huge fun-filled party. Guess who's likely to suffer more battle stress in the long run?

This is all compounded by the fact that to Starfleet has been caught by surprise.

It isn't, however, completely unrelated. The basic piloting skill trained at the Academy, I believe, is established as sufficiently high; what we lack is whether or not ground attack missions are included in training packages.

As to that, we again have no information, and must guess to come to any conclusion.

Pure speculation. A stunt flyer does not necessarily make a good fighter pilot.

Shuttles are rarely one person craft.

Obviously you don't know anything about forward air control. Historically, airstrikes in direct support of ground troops have worked best when guided by a forward air controller either on the ground or in a special observation aircraft.

When the USAF built a two-seat version of the F-100, did they use it as a strike craft that could contain its own FAC without needing to rely on outside sources? No, they built it as a dedicated FAC platform and kept the one-seat version for strike missions.

Even without forward air controllers, ground coordination is essential for a massed airstrike to achieve its full potential as a unit and not as a bunch of individual planes. A historical example of this is the ground-coordinated X-Gerat system that guided German bombers to their targets during the Battle of Britain.

The Federation AFAIK has not demonstrated dedicated FACs, dedicated FAC-carrying vehicles analogous to the OV-1, or any sort of ground-to-air coordination at all.

Granted, the Orks don't seem to be the best coordinated in their attacks themselves, but the Federation will be no better then them at ground-attack missions if they lack ground to air coordination.

[Jedi Master Spock]

Ok, so how many of these Starfleet personnel are actual combatants instead of administrative pencil-pushers?

We can guess.

It will be significant in terms of the pilot supply for a variety of reasons.

First off, if Starfleet loses only 5% of its trained combat pilots from the initial hulk crashes and bombardments, it still has a 5% deficit against the Ork flyboyz in terms of skilled flight personnel, since they will recieve zero to neglegible losses from said hulk crashes and bombardments.

Which is negligible, because Starfleet needs something like 2% of its actual supply of trained pilots to fly the shuttles it will probably have.

Unless we want to talk about hundreds of thousands or millions of shuttles, pilot supply is likely not a concern.

Second, the Starfleet pilots that survive will be shaken mentally (imagine how loud those must be, at the very least) and some will quite possibly be damaged physically to varying degrees as well. The flyboyz will have no such worries, since they've just emerged from the safety and relative comfort of their carrier ships.

Nothing new or unusual here - nor would I expect all or even most Starfleet pilots to be that close to initial bombardments, unless they wind up taking out most of Earth's population in the initial strike.

Again, we're thinking here not of initial contact, but about sustained ground warfare. We wouldn't be talking about ops against ad hoc shield generators if everything is bombarded into nothing.

Pure speculation. A stunt flyer does not necessarily make a good fighter pilot.

The basic skills are there. As I said, the

Obviously you don't know anything about forward air control. Historically, airstrikes in direct support of ground troops have worked best when guided by a forward air controller either on the ground or in a special observation aircraft.

Right. And you were talking about the ability of the pilot to coordinate with FACs in terms of pilot training. An extra hand on comms never hurts if your pilot has a deficiency in talking and listening while flying.

Nor is a general purpose shuttlecraft unable to serve as a FAC craft.

The Federation AFAIK has not demonstrated dedicated FACs, dedicated FAC-carrying vehicles analogous to the OV-1, or any sort of ground-to-air coordination at all.

They do, however, usually have excellent battlefield communications. We've simply not seen anything involving ground-based commands rather than starship-based commands.

Granted, the Orks don't seem to be the best coordinated in their attacks themselves, but the Federation will be no better then them at ground-attack missions if they lack ground to air coordination.

So either the Federation uses capabilities that they may or may not have to gain a substantial advantage over the Orks, or the Orks have parity.

Nor do I entirely trust the Orks to be completely uncoordinated in this. Better to toss that consideration into the neutral pile rather than weigh it in either Starfleet's pile or the Orks' pile.

[Opecoiler]

We can guess.

Which is negligible, because Starfleet needs something like 2% of its actual supply of trained pilots to fly the shuttles it will probably have.

In the long run. In the short run, it will mean that they will have less pilots to send up against the first waves of Ork fighta-bommerz-making their position even more precarious.

Nothing new or unusual here - nor would I expect all or even most Starfleet pilots to be that close to initial bombardments, unless they wind up taking out most of Earth's population in the initial strike.

Why? Because Starfleet shuttle pilots just sit around in hardened bunkers all day, waiting for the signal to board their craft and launch?

And why, a giant fleet of utterly alien ships suddenly appearing out of nowhere and attacking with some of their largest vessels forgoing bombardment and simply crashing into Earth before unleashing huge mobs of savage warriors isn't unusual in the least!

Again, we're thinking here not of initial contact, but about sustained ground warfare. We wouldn't be talking about ops against ad hoc shield generators if everything is bombarded into nothing.

The problem is that a great many Starfleet shuttles and their crews will not survive the initial contact.

To summarize:

Caught completely by surprise, the Starfleet shuttle pilots have to take to the air to head off the masses of fighta-bommerz, landas, and other Ork craft heading down to the surface. They will certainly be shaken mentally by this sudden surprise attack, and some will be affected physically, their conditions from "Headache and shell shock from the noise" to "Dead".

Meanwhile, the hordes of Ork flyboyz are not affected in the least by any of this, and head down eager to Waaauugh! They enjoy a massive morale and mental state advantage over the shuttle pilots, which matters very much in battle.

Not to mention that landas descending on major Starfleet bases could destroy or capture plenty of shuttles on the ground.

Right. And you were talking about the ability of the pilot to coordinate with FACs in terms of pilot training. An extra hand on comms never hurts if your pilot has a deficiency in talking and listening while flying.

Yet what's the comms operator going to relay to the pilot? The commands of a nonexistent FAC?

Nor is a general purpose shuttlecraft unable to serve as a FAC craft.

Spock, being theoretically able to do something and to actually have that something implemented are two vastly different things. By your line of reasoning, I can give every single Ork mega armor, a stormboy rokkit pack, and tankbusta bombs, simply because it's theoretically possible to do so.

They do, however, usually have excellent battlefield communications. We've simply not seen anything involving ground-based commands rather than starship-based commands.

Or they could simply lack ground-based communications. AR-558 supports this, where there was an astouding lack of what you've been claiming.

(And they'd just been resupplied, so none of this "They were out of it" BS)

[Jedi Master Spock]

In the long run. In the short run, it will mean that they will have less pilots to send up against the first waves of Ork fighta-bommerz-making their position even more precarious.

It takes very little time to locate pilots for all the craft - unless, of course, there are hundreds of thousands to millions of them.

Why? Because Starfleet shuttle pilots just sit around in hardened bunkers all day, waiting for the signal to board their craft and launch?

No, because there are probably ten to a hundred times as many trained pilots, and most of the awake ones are probably about five minutes from being deployed in a genuine emergency.

The problem is that a great many Starfleet shuttles and their crews will not survive the initial contact.

To summarize:

Caught completely by surprise, the Starfleet shuttle pilots have to take to the air to head off the masses of fighta-bommerz, landas, and other Ork craft heading down to the surface. They will certainly be shaken mentally by this sudden surprise attack, and some will be affected physically, their conditions from "Headache and shell shock from the noise" to "Dead".

Actually, I've been assuming that, caught completely by surprise, not all shuttles will launch - nor will anywhere near all of them be in a few points. I expect countless shuttles in other locations in ones and twos completely ignored by the Orks and therefore not an immediate priority to Starfleet.

Second, as I've mentioned before, unless most of Earth's population is immediately affected by the initial surprise landing, there will be plenty of untraumatized pilots available.

Yet what's the comms operator going to relay to the pilot? The commands of a nonexistent FAC?

The comms officer is simply there (hypothetically) to make up for any possible lack in Starfleet pilot training. Which, as I've pointed out, is probably not present.

Spock, being theoretically able to do something and to actually have that something implemented are two vastly different things. By your line of reasoning, I can give every single Ork mega armor, a stormboy rokkit pack, and tankbusta bombs, simply because it's theoretically possible to do so.

Except we have evidence that most Orks don't. We have no hard evidence as to whether or not FACs exist in Starfleet, and further no hard evidence as to whether or not Starfleet would come up with some.

Or they could simply lack ground-based communications. AR-558 supports this, where there was an astouding lack of what you've been claiming.

Possible, but as you've pointed out, communications coordination is often handled aboard dedicated ships....

... i.e., looking at the sort of comms networks in which Picard can get an entire armada to strike a point within seconds simply by saying a few words.

We have a little suggestive evidence, in other words, suggesting the Federation is more likely to have the advantage here.

Given you've said the Orks have absolutely nothing in terms of comms coordination, why are we spending so long on this point?

[Opecoiler]

It takes very little time to locate pilots for all the craft - unless, of course, there are hundreds of thousands to millions of them.

Proof?

No, because there are probably ten to a hundred times as many trained pilots, and most of the awake ones are probably about five minutes from being deployed in a genuine emergency.

Your ratios don't match reality, JMSpock. While RL air forces often do have more pilots than planes, it's nowhere near a hundred or sometimes even ten. In fact, I can show you Kuwait's air force, which once (and possibly still may) had more planes then trained pilots.

Unless the pilots are just always on station and ready to go, it's going to take them a lot more than five minutes to get deployed and ready to fly-and this is assuming that they aren't in an area that's not being bombarded, or has a space hulk full of Orks crash near it.

Actually, I've been assuming that, caught completely by surprise, not all shuttles will launch - nor will anywhere near all of them be in a few points. I expect countless shuttles in other locations in ones and twos completely ignored by the Orks and therefore not an immediate priority to Starfleet.

I don't exactly understand what you're saying. Could you interpret it more clearly?

Of course, not launching shuttles as soon as the invasion starts means that the Orks can land troops and conduct bombing raids untroubled. The first stages of an invasion are often the most crucial, for obvious reasons.

Second, as I've mentioned before, unless most of Earth's population is immediately affected by the initial surprise landing, there will be plenty of untraumatized pilots available.

All of Earth's population is going to be immediately affected by the initial surprise attacks, especially the pilots. If you had to go fight an unbelievably large force of a completely alien speicies no one has ever seen before, you'd definitely be traumatized.

The comms officer is simply there (hypothetically) to make up for any possible lack in Starfleet pilot training. Which, as I've pointed out, is probably not present.

And yet shuttlecraft don't exactly demonstrate rapid dogfight manuevering in combat, which makes me doubt your claims of excellent piloting.

Except we have evidence that most Orks don't. We have no hard evidence as to whether or not FACs exist in Starfleet, and further no hard evidence as to whether or not Starfleet would come up with some.

We have no evidence of FACs in Starfleet (And plenty of evidence to the contrary, where they aren't used in areas where they may be useful) so you say "They may or may not exist", even though it might be hypothetically possible.

We have no evidence of every single Ork equipped with mega armor, a stormboy rokkit pack, and tankbusta bombs (And plenty of evidence to the contrary, where they aren't shown often in depictions.), so you say that they don't exist, even though it might be hypothetically possible.

Nice double standard, JMSpock.

Possible, but as you've pointed out, communications coordination is often handled aboard dedicated ships....

... i.e., looking at the sort of comms networks in which Picard can get an entire armada to strike a point within seconds simply by saying a few words.

An entire armada of ships equipped with extensive communication systems. Try an example of this sort with ground troops.

[Roondar]

An entire armada of ships equipped with extensive communication systems. Try an example of this sort with ground troops.

There's always that Voyager episode in which Harry Kim (or Tom Paris, I forget) did something rather illegal on earth and the security forces beamed to his exact location in like five seconds.

You'd need a pretty darned impressive commsnetwork, scanning system and a high degree of orginisation to make anything remotely resembling that possible.

--

Also, a few words on morale:

While you are no doubt correct that there will be some morale issues, you are forgetting the realities of war. In real combat men and women show, remarkably enough, far more will to fight after bad stuff happens to their friends than before.

In essence, the best way to get someone to want to kill is to kill his friends or family because then he has something to fight for and die for. Instead of just having something to fight for.



Secondly, this is not just fighting a little war somewhere on the other side of the Federation far from home, this is a fight for survival. And not just theirs, but all their loved ones as well. That produces a good stimulus to want to fight well, Orks surprise attack or no.



Thirdly, we've seen Startfleet people under severe pressure. Witness Voyagers crew in 'year of hell'. The worse things got, the more determined Janeway and the rest became. Witness the Borg attacks. The worse the situation got for Picard and friends the more determined to fight them he and most of the crew became. Witness pretty much the entire Dominion war and most of DS9 period. The worse the situation became, the more steadfast the officers became to fight.

This is not just an isolated incident or two, starfleet personel show remarkable stubborness and mental resilliance in battle - they just keep on going. Especially if things seem lost or going against them.

[Jedi Master Spock]

Proof?

With planetary comms, transporters, and a reasonably fast database the time to get an awake qualified pilot into the seat is very small.

Take a look at the scramble time in some of the movies. It's a question basically of how quick the personnel in question are willing to say "Oh, yes, I'll go."

Your ratios don't match reality, JMSpock. While RL air forces often do have more pilots than planes, it's nowhere near a hundred or sometimes even ten. In fact, I can show you Kuwait's air force, which once (and possibly still may) had more planes then trained pilots.

We're not talking about an Air Force's active duty pilots; we're talking about the number of pilots on Earth willing to pilot a craft against hostile attacking small craft.

I don't exactly understand what you're saying. Could you interpret it more clearly?

Of course, not launching shuttles as soon as the invasion starts means that the Orks can land troops and conduct bombing raids untroubled. The first stages of an invasion are often the most crucial, for obvious reasons.

One of the reasons why I originally posited the Orks taking large amounts of territory early in the invasion in spite of not having the force necessary to actually conquer Earth in the long run.

All of Earth's population is going to be immediately affected by the initial surprise attacks, especially the pilots.

If every bit of Earth's population is killed or injured in an initial surprise bombardment, air coverage is a moot point.

And yet shuttlecraft don't exactly demonstrate rapid dogfight manuevering in combat,

Since when?

Nice double standard, JMSpock.

No double standard. We have evidence against every Ork having Mega Armor et cetera - hence the "no." We have no evidence against Starfleet having FACs - hence the "maybe."

An entire armada of ships equipped with extensive communication systems. Try an example of this sort with ground troops.

Almost every away team mission that goes awry?

[Opecoiler]

Take a look at the scramble time in some of the movies. It's a question basically of how quick the personnel in question are willing to say "Oh, yes, I'll go."

Which movies are you talking about?

We're not talking about an Air Force's active duty pilots; we're talking about the number of pilots on Earth willing to pilot a craft against hostile attacking small craft.

Yet an Air Force's pilots are the only ones that would even have a chance against an Orkish fighta-bommer in a fight. You try sticking a civilian pilot into a combat zone and he'll be worse than useless.

If every bit of Earth's population is killed or injured in an initial surprise bombardment, air coverage is a moot point.

I'm not talking about the physical effect, I'm talking about the psychological.

How much of America was physically affected by Pearl Harbor or 9/11? Very small portions. How much of America was psychologically affected by it, afraid of further Japanese/terrorist attacks and rattled? A lot more.

Now imagine that instead of a small air raid, you're dealing with a giant invasion by a completely alien species, with their aircraft screaming through the skies all over the world.

It's enough to psychologically affect anyone.

Since when?

Burden of proof is on you to find a sufficient example.

No double standard. We have evidence against every Ork having Mega Armor et cetera - hence the "no." We have no evidence against Starfleet having FACs - hence the "maybe."

If you want to play it that way....

We have no evidence against Trek humans disentigrating from simply being within one light-year of an Ork-so maybe the Orks will arrive to an empty world.

Almost every away team mission that goes awry?

I meant coordination among ground forces by ground forces. Which AR-558 shows they don't seem to have.

[Jedi Master Spock]

Which movies are you talking about?

You might start with STV for a legitimate roundup.

Yet an Air Force's pilots are the only ones that would even have a chance against an Orkish fighta-bommer in a fight. You try sticking a civilian pilot into a combat zone and he'll be worse than useless.

Except that many of those "civilian" (i.e., not active service pilots) have Starfleet training.

I'd like you to compare two ratios. One, the number of trained pilots to shuttlecraft on a typical starship. Two, the length of probable service for the average servicebeing in Starfleet, compared with the length of their probable civilian career and/or retirement following.

I'm not talking about the physical effect, I'm talking about the psychological.

How much of America was physically affected by Pearl Harbor or 9/11? Very small portions. How much of America was psychologically affected by it, afraid of further Japanese/terrorist attacks and rattled? A lot more.

Now imagine that instead of a small air raid, you're dealing with a giant invasion by a completely alien species, with their aircraft screaming through the skies all over the world.

It's enough to psychologically affect anyone.

Pearl Harbor didn't precisely blunt US pilots' flying skills.

Burden of proof is on you to find a sufficient example.

Not by any reasonable standard. You, not I, asserted that Federation shuttles are incapable of dogfighting maneuvers.

I have asserted, thus far, nothing either way.

If you want to play it that way....

We have no evidence against Trek humans disentigrating from simply being within one light-year of an Ork-so maybe the Orks will arrive to an empty world.

Actually, we do have evidence strongly suggesting that to be impossible. Humans exist in WH40K, and those humans do not disintegrate from being within one light year of Orks.

Not to mention that, when we have no evidence for or against, it's fair to assume it an advantage for neither. FACs, comparative dogfighting maneuverability, et cetera.

I meant coordination among ground forces by ground forces. Which AR-558 shows they don't seem to have.

Which gives us no problem with the idea of using flying craft for coordination; nor do we have evidence for any superior level of communication among Orks. Again, call it a wash.

[WolfRitter]

Not by any reasonable standard. You, not I, asserted that Federation shuttles are incapable of dogfighting maneuvers.

False, what you are engaging in is called a Negative Proof Fallacy, it is dishonest debating, if you are arguing the positive it is YOUR job to prove your side, it's the entire basis for the legal term 'innocent until proven guilty'.

[Jedi Master Spock]

False, what you are engaging in is called a Negative Proof Fallacy, it is dishonest debating, if you are arguing the positive

Except that I'm not. I have not claimed either advantage or disadvantage for shuttlecraft vs WH40K craft regarding maneuverability.

Read more carefully.

Opecoiler has made an assertion, namely, that Federation shuttlecraft are incapable of dogfighting.

I've challenged him to provide evidence for that assertion, and suggested that, with no evidence for an advantage in maneuverability for either Ork aircraft or Federation shuttles, we should consider it neutral.

[WolfRitter]

False, what you are engaging in is called a Negative Proof Fallacy, it is dishonest debating, if you are arguing the positive

Except that I'm not. I have not claimed either advantage or disadvantage for shuttlecraft vs WH40K craft regarding maneuverability.

Read more carefully.

Opecoiler has made an assertion, namely, that Federation shuttlecraft are incapable of dogfighting.

I've challenged him to provide evidence for that assertion, and suggested that, with no evidence for an advantage in maneuverability for either Ork aircraft or Federation shuttles, we should consider it neutral.

Are you contesting the negative assertion, yes or no?

[Roondar]

Are you contesting the negative assertion, yes or no?

That is hardly relevant. If someone makes an assertion, negative or otherwise it's naturally his job to provide proof. If he can't (and he didn't in this case so I assume he can't) it's not the job of the other party to do so.

Or are you seriously suggesting everything asserted must be held as true until evidence to the contrary is found*?

Because that would be a very, very dangerous point of view to hold. It would essentially make everything that cannot be proven true or false a truth. That is clearly not desirable nor anywhere near scientific.

*) Note that in logic it does not make an iota of difference wether or not the assumption is posted in the negative or positive. Both abide by the same rules, so what goes for negative assertions also goes for positive ones.